2 years ago

3 Years ago

The Fall and Rise

 2011
The Fall.

• First year of my life living alone.
• Marriage ended. Not with an argument, not through a phone call,sms or e-mail, or facebook, my wife moved home and never contacted me again.
• Completely cut off from 2 sons.
• Drank less than ever before, during any previous years in Hong Kong.(any comments disputing this are complete bollocks, I know! Drinking has been only in Lantau or the OCh/Queen Vic, averaging once a week.
• Smoking at a constant level.
• Had highest ever monthly earnings -twice.
• Had lowest ever monthly earnings three times.
• Robbed and lied to by 3 different companies in quick succession.
• Spent some great times with friends and family.
• Swam a lot more than last year.
• Sang a lot more than last year.
• Danced, but not enough.
• Spent a lot of time writing, but nothing of consequence.
• Regained,lost and regained self belief and self esteem.

                  2012
The Rise

• Regain contact and see children.
• Quit smoking
• Get teeth done.
• Earn more.
• Work for a decent company
• Sing more
• Dance a lot more
• Laugh more
• Live more
• Travel more
• Attend high school reunion
• Use facebook more(lol)
• Reject negativity in all forms.
• Cut all ties with God
• Travel to a country that doesn't celebrate Christmas at Christmas.
• Write something of consequence.
• Begin writing a book.
• Get out of The Box and find a reasonably sized flat.

Layad

set fire to the...

Se

Tree

Christmas

Happy Christmas folks, near and dear, and those who are far, may the New year be all you want it to be, in Hong Kong, England, and everywhere in the Universe

With friends.

On Paul's boat.

Of Christmas past.....

1 week, 1 funeral, 1 wedding and. 2 christenings.

 Busy week, although I was only at the christenings in spirit, but my brother, father and Sue were there

My cousin and her husband were also godparents apparently,  I still haven't seen a single picture, not that I was told or invited. In fact I haven't seen a single picture for a year.

Hank Moody's letter

Hank Moody's letter

I'm writing you a letter. That's right a good old fashioned letter. It's a lost art, really. Shit.
I have a confession to make, I didn't like you very much at first.
You were just this annoying little blob. You smelled nice, most of the time, but you didn't seem to have much interest in me, which I of course found vaguely insulting.
It was just you and your mom against the world. Funny how some things never change.
So I cruised along doing my thing, acting the fool, not really understanding how being a parent changes you.
And I don't remember the exact moment everything changed. I just know that it did.
One minute I was impenetrable. Nothing could touch me. The next, my heart was somehow beating outside my chest, exposed to the elements.
Loving you has been the most profound, intense, painful experience of my life. In fact it's been almost too much to bare.
As your father, I made a silent vow to protect you from the world. Never realizing I was the one who'd end up hurting you the most.
When I flash forward my heart breaks, mostly because I can't imagine you speaking of me with any sort of pride, how could you?
Your father is a child in a man's body, he cares for nothing and everything at the same time.
Noble in thought, weak in action. Something has to change, something has to give.
It's getting dark, too dark to see.

Boring father

Becca Moody to Hank Moody:
I live in the real world where I need a fucking father. You're so proud of yourself for being such a cool Dad, well look where it fucking got you!
You know that I pray sometimes Dad? You know what I pray for the most? That I wake up one day and you've become a total bore. The kind of father who gets up every morning puts on his suit and tie drives to some lame office and comes home at 5.30 on the dot, has a drink and hangs out with his fucking family.

How hard would that have been for you Dad? To just be like everyone else!

Wonderful world

I love you Hunny Bunny

My 39th year.

Wanchai and elsewhere

Beautiful things

Change-NO!

Given my time again, would I change who I am? No, fucking NO.

The chilling truth.

This is what the banks face, not more importantly what people will face(in addition to the measures already being felt).This is why some senior economists are now warning of a 'lost decade'.

From the BBC http://t.co/mESGicZd.

.......The model looks at the impact of disorderly default on the core capital held by Europe's banks, and it does so in two tranches. The lesser would be Greece, Portugal and Ireland defaulting. The greater would add Italy and Spain. It won't be lost on you that these Mediterranean giants are now very much in play.

In short, the reckoning, or rechnung, doesn't look good for the Germans. But then, it doesn't look good for anyone.

Eye-watering figures

The assumption is of a 50% loss - or "haircut" - on government debt (the level already assumed for Greece). It goes on to assume there's nothing to be salvaged from bank debt, and lending to individuals, households and companies takes a 40% write-down.

This model looks at the impact on four countries for which figures are more readily available: Germany, France, the UK and Belgium - the latter because its bank sector is exposed to its French neighbours.

If Greece, Portugal and Ireland hit that level of default, half of German banks' capital buffers are gone, a third of Belgium's and a quarter in France and the UK.

But there are indirect effects as inter-bank insurance and lending unravels, and that wipes out 100% of German banks' core tier 1 capital.

Belgium's left with only 7%, France with 25% and the UK with 50%. Britain would take a hit from Ireland in particular, but RBS and Lloyds Banking Group have already written down a lot of their exposure.

And what about adding Italy and Spain? The figures are eye-watering.

The direct effects would require governments to recapitalise German and French banks with 125% of their current core capital, meaning nationalisation.

Chilling reminder

But add in the indirect effects, and you find it would require 275% of German banks' core capital, 270% in Belgium, 225% in France and 130% in the UK.

At that point, Germany is only able (it would hope) to meet the bailout requirements of its own banks, while it is every other eurozone country for itself.

That impacts directly on the banks' ability to lend to businesses, individuals or, indeed, governments.

And it's hard to see how you would keep the eurozone together in those circumstances.

For Germans, the crunch decision is getting very close - between bailing out their profligate, indisciplined partners at vast expense, or letting the euro project collapse.

These figures are a chilling reminder that the impact comes back to wallop Germany hardest of all.

And for Britain, it's not much consolation that it won't face quite as big............