I love you Hunny Bunny

My 39th year.

Wanchai and elsewhere

Beautiful things

Change-NO!

Given my time again, would I change who I am? No, fucking NO.

The chilling truth.

This is what the banks face, not more importantly what people will face(in addition to the measures already being felt).This is why some senior economists are now warning of a 'lost decade'.

From the BBC http://t.co/mESGicZd.

.......The model looks at the impact of disorderly default on the core capital held by Europe's banks, and it does so in two tranches. The lesser would be Greece, Portugal and Ireland defaulting. The greater would add Italy and Spain. It won't be lost on you that these Mediterranean giants are now very much in play.

In short, the reckoning, or rechnung, doesn't look good for the Germans. But then, it doesn't look good for anyone.

Eye-watering figures

The assumption is of a 50% loss - or "haircut" - on government debt (the level already assumed for Greece). It goes on to assume there's nothing to be salvaged from bank debt, and lending to individuals, households and companies takes a 40% write-down.

This model looks at the impact on four countries for which figures are more readily available: Germany, France, the UK and Belgium - the latter because its bank sector is exposed to its French neighbours.

If Greece, Portugal and Ireland hit that level of default, half of German banks' capital buffers are gone, a third of Belgium's and a quarter in France and the UK.

But there are indirect effects as inter-bank insurance and lending unravels, and that wipes out 100% of German banks' core tier 1 capital.

Belgium's left with only 7%, France with 25% and the UK with 50%. Britain would take a hit from Ireland in particular, but RBS and Lloyds Banking Group have already written down a lot of their exposure.

And what about adding Italy and Spain? The figures are eye-watering.

The direct effects would require governments to recapitalise German and French banks with 125% of their current core capital, meaning nationalisation.

Chilling reminder

But add in the indirect effects, and you find it would require 275% of German banks' core capital, 270% in Belgium, 225% in France and 130% in the UK.

At that point, Germany is only able (it would hope) to meet the bailout requirements of its own banks, while it is every other eurozone country for itself.

That impacts directly on the banks' ability to lend to businesses, individuals or, indeed, governments.

And it's hard to see how you would keep the eurozone together in those circumstances.

For Germans, the crunch decision is getting very close - between bailing out their profligate, indisciplined partners at vast expense, or letting the euro project collapse.

These figures are a chilling reminder that the impact comes back to wallop Germany hardest of all.

And for Britain, it's not much consolation that it won't face quite as big............

Helper denied Permanent Residency.

The first of many.The High court may have asserted helpers the right to apply for Permanent Residency, but not the right for it to be granted.
Court rejects abode application    

10-11-2011      RTHK Suresh Chandar reports
High Court dismisses bid for permanent residency.
The High Court has rejected a judicial review brought by a Filipino maid and her Hong Kong-born son for permanent residency. Josephine Gutierrez and her son, 14, challenged the refusal of the immigration authorities to grant them permanent identity cards.

They argued that the decision was made without properly analysing evidence that they'd made Hong Kong their permanent place of residence.

However, Mr Justice Johnson Lam agreed with the authorities that Ms Gutierrez hadn't taken any steps to prove she lived permanently in the territory. He also said her son didn't qualify for right of abode because he hadn't stayed in the SAR continuously for seven years

Another example of strange justice in Hong Kong

Another example of strange justice in Hong Kong;
This guy was caught filming a student and  'A total of 70 video clips and 436 photos, 15 taken from under skirts, were found on his phone'.
'Acting principal magistrate Gary Lam Kar-yan said Chui had done well academically, held a good job and been the subject of a "very positive" probation report.
As a result, Lam said he had decided to sentence Chui to 15 months' probation.'
Why did the judge take into account his 'good job' and academic merits?.......Does this mean that a stupid, jobless man would have been given a bigger sentance?
 Video sneak at school toilet gets probation (The Standard)
http://bit.ly/vT7TNA

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it

  Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it -George Santayana
Images (follow the link)from WWII , particularly Bergen-Belsen concentration camp (where I attended primary school in the 70s  and 80s). 12 million civilians died in Europe alone during that terrible time. When we say soldiers died for our freedom, this is what is meant. This is how tyranny and evil looks, everywhere, anytime. The images are horrible,that is a warning.

http://danjswade.wordpress.com/2010/08/13/pictures-of-horror/

Armistice day-lest we forget

Poppy

FIFA have disallowed the England football team from wearing poppies this weekend.

As someone just mentioned in pmq's. On Xmas day in the Somme, both sides laid down their arms and played a game of football. Armistice/Remembrance day is a day to remember why we should never return to the dark days of war. A poppy is a symbol for peace-for all the world.

Autumn days

Causeway Bay 

Amusing today as I walked through Causeway Bay. It was blowy, and felt lovely and fresh.Looking at the throngs of people though, and it looked like a winter's day in London.Jackets were on and zipped right up, heads were , and the pace was much faster than usual.I even saw couples hugged close together against the elements.I felt like a Geordie in my t-shirt on a Christmas night out. The temperature?.....19c

I told you so?

CNN - Europe populist parties feed off crisis sense

Could Greece lead Europe to war?

C.Mercer 7.11.11

This is not a prediction, more of a worst case scenario. Some would say far-fetched, but modern history would say otherwise.

Greece will now hold elections around February. Who will the people vote for. Will they choose the most sensible option of a government that will follow the punitive austerity measures as needed to pay for the massive debt caused by decades of not paying any tax? Or will they choose a party who will water down the measures and possibly take it to bankruptcy? Or will even more radical groups emerge? Throughout modern European history those countries brought to their knees by financial mismanagement  have headed into extremism, left or right. A nation's wounded pride is a dangerous thing. As resentment and nationalism increase so does   the   chance of conflict. This happened with both Germany and Italy, and more recently with the former Yugoslavia. Greece borders the Balkans, and the relationship has never been easy. The Republic of Macedonia on Greece's northern border annoyed Greece from the start for stealing the name of the northern state of Macedonia in Greece. Then of course there is Turkey, a rise of nationalism can do no favours for that relationship.  The peoples of the former Yugoslavian states seem very nice today, but back in 1992 as I hitched through war-torn Macedonia, Serbia and Croatia, I saw the hate that comes with war first hand. When a country has its back to the wall, it is those with the loudest voices (and biggest fists/guns) that tend to be heard. Athens has already been affected again and again with violence because of the anger of its people. How about Italy, also on the edge, maybe a much bigger edge? No, Italy would never be ruled by a charismatic leader who will do anything to retain power, would it?

It is worth remembering during these times why the European union was founded in the first place, to prevent war and encourage communication between all of the people throughout Europe who have always, constantly and for millennia done nothing but kill each other.

Universe

1 year ago

2 Little boys

Brothers-Jo and Jack